Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase models: The market-priced probability of a U.S. recession has risen sharply
Models from Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase show that the market-implied probability of a recession has risen sharply, judging from signals from the U.S. bond market and, to a lesser extent, the performance of stocks, which are extremely sensitive to the ups and downs of the business cycle. Data from Goldman Sachs shows that the stock and bond markets now believe that the probability of a U.S. recession is 41%, up from 29% in April. A similar model from JPMorgan Chase calculates that the probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 20% at the end of March due to a sharp repricing of U.S. Treasuries. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said the recession risk in the bank's model reflects the rate cuts that the market has priced in since last month's employment report showed a slowdown in job growth.
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