U.S. Consumer Confidence Largely Flat, Presidential Election Remains in Focus

Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey, said the consumer confidence index was essentially flat for the fourth consecutive month, up a modest 1.4 points. With election developments making headlines this month, sentiment among Democrats rose 6 percent after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee. Sentiment among Republicans is the opposite, down 5% for the month. Sentiment among neutral independents rose 3%. The survey showed that 41 percent of consumers thought Harris was the better candidate on the economy, while 38 percent chose Trump. Overall, expectations for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook have strengthened, reaching their highest level in four months, consistent with the fact that election developments could affect future expectations but are unlikely to change current assessments. However, some consumers noted that if their expectations for the election had not materialized, the trajectory of their expectations for the economy would have been quite different. Thus, consumer expectations may change as the presidential campaign becomes a larger focus.