Gold has surged to an unprecedented $2,508 per ounce as Bitcoin struggles to keep pace. This rise has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates.
The precious metal is up by over 26% since mid-February this year and more than 38% since October 2023.
Gold Price Source: Kitco
Bitcoin struggles to match gold’s performance
Despite its reputation as a store of value akin to gold, Bitcoin’s current performance has fallen short of its traditional counterpart’s over recent periods. The cryptocurrency has seen its price dip 17% from its all-time high of $73,747 in March.
Custodia Bank CEO and founder Caitlin Long has previously said that more investors flock to Bitcoin during times of uncertainty because it is a scarce asset, with a total supply capped at 21 million coins.
Kaiko research analyst Adam Morgan McCarthy explains:
I think what we’re seeing here is that investors don’t yet move into Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty. It failed to attract safe-haven flows in April during an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and has done so again now. The leading coin is more often correlated with equities during heightened periods of market stress.
– Adam Morgan McCarthy
Amberdata’s director of derivatives, Greg Magadini, mentions that while gold and Bitcoin should be correlated, other forces are at play, including the U.S. November elections. He points out that the upcoming U.S. elections, with Donald Trump viewed as more supportive of crypto than Kamala Harris, have influenced Bitcoin’s appeal due to potential regulatory changes under different administrations.
Anticipation grows ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech this coming Friday at the central bank’s annual meeting in Wyoming. He is anticipated to outline the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates in a highly significant address.
Powell’s immediate audience will be the other central bankers, academics, and journalists invited to spend three days discussing the finer points of monetary policy at the Jackson Lake Lodge. The event’s location is more than 2,000 meters up in the Grand Teton National Park in northwest Wyoming.
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci cautions that if recession concerns intensify and faith in BTC’s ability to preserve value diminishes, we might witness a plunge in the correlation between gold and Bitcoin, potentially leading to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices.
