Agency: U.S. consumer optimism appears vulnerable to political factors

Oliver Allen, an analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a report that the rise in U.S. consumer confidence may be attributed to the ups and downs of political momentum and may not last long. A survey released by the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence rose more than expected this month, with consumers taking a more positive view of both the current situation and future conditions. But Allen believes that confidence is closely tied to political trends, and that August's increase may be attributed to the prospect of Democratic candidate Harris boosting the mood of her supporters. The rise is therefore vulnerable to new political developments as the November election approaches, and in any case such changes "tend to correlate poorly with spending decisions," he said. "We think ... both confidence and consumption growth will weaken significantly from here on out."