Analyst: The scale of tokenized RWA could reach $1.3 trillion by 2030, not $30 trillion

A cryptocurrency analyst has expressed skepticism about the optimistic prediction that the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) could reach $300 trillion by 2030. Instead, he believes that 5% of this amount is a more realistic target. Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, Jamie Coutts, stated in an X post on August 27: "If the current two-year compound annual growth rate of 121% continues, we may see the value of tokenized traditional assets reaching around $1.3 trillion by 2030." In June this year, Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse predicted that by 2034, the scale of tokenized RWA could reach $30.1 trillion.

Although Coutts thinks Wall Street's forecast is "too optimistic", even his more conservative estimate could have a significant impact on the Web3 ecosystem if things develop as he envisions. He believes that if $1.3 trillion worth of RWA assets enter onto blockchain platforms it will create a huge flywheel effect for other parts of the crypto ecosystem such as NFTs, social platforms and games. However, he thinks calculating "value accumulation" on Ethereum will be difficult depending on how much market share Layer2 networks capture and how this compares to what Ethereum's base network captures itself . He pointed out: "L2 might take up to 95-99% revenue with remaining part being paid to ETH as settlement fees," adding L2 is unlikely to give up its cash cow allowing ETH to expand L1’s scale.