Institutional outlook for Fed rate resolution (III) - may cut rates by 25bp, opening the door for more rate cuts

1. Ernst Young: 25bp rate cut expected, first negative statement in 19 meetings. Removed negative statement on rate cut. Raise unemployment forecast for this year, lower PCE inflation forecast. Powell will take a stand in support of the labor market.
2. CICC: basically locked the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, the U.S. headline CPI continued to slow, but the core CPI rebounded for the second consecutive month. U.S. economic soft landing accompanied by inflation sticky, rate cuts will walk away.
3. Bundesbank: 25bp rate cut expected, Powell had to show confidence in the outlook, economic forecasts will show a 75 basis point rate cut this year. But if he chooses to cut rates by 50bp, he expects to cut rates by 100bp by the end of the year.
4. Danske: 25 bps Fed rate cut expected, no change in QT pace. The new dot plot would suggest a total of 3 x 25bp rate cuts this year and 6 x 25bp cuts next year. risks favor higher USD and short bond yields.
5. Nordea: expect a 25bp rate cut, 25bp each in November and December, and 100bp next year. this is a big gap from market expectations and threatens to disappoint. Powell will leave the door open for more frequent and larger rate cuts.
6. CITIC Securities: U.S. August CPI basically in line with expectations, rental inflation cooling trend is not a reversal, to maintain the Federal Reserve rate cuts three times a year, each 25bp forecast. Pay attention to the short-end U.S. bonds, defensive U.S. stock allocation opportunities.
7. deutsche Bank: expected rate cut 25bp, although the market is expected to the Fed's first significant rate cut possibility of slightly more than 50%. But a small first step does not rule out a big move later, and the current risk is tilted toward dollar weakness.