Kalshi founder refutes claims of manipulation in prediction markets

Concerns about manipulation in prediction markets have surfaced after former President Donald Trump gained a 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket for the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

Tarek Mansour, founder of the Kalshi prediction market, dismissed these claims, arguing that the results are accurate and not influenced by large, external forces.

Mansour pointed out that contrary to the notion of a few large bettors skewing the odds in favor of Trump, "The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump," with Harris’s median bet at $85 and Trump’s at $58.

He also noted that more individual bets are being placed on Trump, which explains his 20-point lead on Polymarket and aligns with the trends seen on Kalshi.

Mansour further clarified that Kalshi is an "American-only" platform, addressing concerns about foreign manipulation influencing the odds.

He concluded by emphasizing the reliability of prediction markets as a "new source of truth, free from bias," offering an alternative to traditional polling methods.

Debates over the value of prediction markets have intensified, with figures like Elon Musk advocating for their accuracy.

Musk argued that prediction markets yield better results when money is on the line.

However, critics have raised concerns over the exclusion of U.S. participants from Polymarket, questioning the validity of its predictions.

Throughout much of August and September, Harris led Trump on Polymarket by a narrow margin.

However, Trump's chances increased significantly in early October, fueling further discussions about the predictive power and reliability of such platforms as the election draws near.