Citi: October non-farm data will slow down significantly, and market attention will not return to the recession
The Fed has yet to declare victory in its fight against inflation, but policymakers have shifted some of their attention to the biggest part of their dual mandate, employment. "The October nonfarm payrolls will be an important confirmation or negation of the stronger September data, but may not be enough to shift market attention back to the risk of a U.S. recession," Citi economist Veronica Clark said in a recent report, "However, the October data will reflect the impact of the ongoing Boeing strike and hurricanes. Clark estimates that these factors will reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000. Citi's view on nonfarm payrolls is milder than generally expected, with an increase of 90,000 and a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.23%. In addition, Citi said that any downward revision to the September data may be more significant than usual.
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