The United States will begin the 2024 presidential election next Tuesday, with many major polls still showing Trump and Harris neck and neck

On November 3, the United States will begin the 2024 presidential election next Tuesday, November 5, with many major polls still showing Trump and Harris neck-and-neck. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that hedge funds and managers have amassed $18 billion in long dollar positions ahead of the US election vote. Strategists on Wall Street now generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the dollar, at least in the short term, with hedge funds and other speculative traders expecting the potential impact of the election on demand for safe-haven assets and the direction of tariffs to rally the dollar further.

Markets generally believe that Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes would be good for corporate earnings, so a win for him would boost U.S. stocks. Harris' potential tax hikes, on the other hand, are seen as relatively negative for stocks. But Bank of America and Citi are the latest to suggest the opposite. Many of the positive possibilities for next week are already priced in, so the risk is tilted to the downside,” said analyst Marc Chandler. Gold recently hit a new all-time high, but failed to break above $2,800. It's worth noting that when the U.S. stock market fell on Oct. 31, gold also sold off sharply, almost as if it were being liquidated to meet margin requirements.