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US presidential race betting nears $4 billion as Polymarket dominates

US presidential race betting nears $4 billion as Polymarket dominates

GrafaGrafa2024/11/06 11:00
By:Isaac Francis

As the 2024 US presidential election unfolds, betting volumes on prediction markets have surged close to $4 billion, with Polymarket leading in this intense activity. 

Based on Polymarket’s data, around $3.3 billion has been traded on the platform, capturing widespread interest despite its inaccessibility within the United States. 

US-based platforms such as Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers are also experiencing a rapid influx in betting, collectively drawing over $500 million in trading volume since their October launch, according to data on their websites. 

The competitive landscape in election betting has been particularly active, especially after Kalshi secured a legal victory in September, allowing it to operate political betting markets in the US. 

Trump has maintained a notable lead across these platforms. 

According to Polymarket, Trump’s odds sit at approximately 62%, with Kalshi and Interactive Brokers estimating around 58%. 

Additionally, other platforms have seen millions in trading volume through contracts covering popular election outcomes like margin of victory and popular vote shares. 

Election betting platforms such as Polymarket provide contracts with binary payout structures, appealing to those interested in betting on high-profile political events, from presidential outcomes to state races and other key positions. 

However, the surge in trading has not been free from scrutiny. 

Allegations of market manipulation through wash trading—estimated to affect 30% of Polymarket’s election bets—have raised questions about the integrity of some trading volumes, as reported by a pseudonymous bettor known as Domer. 

The emergence of these betting platforms has led some industry experts to argue that prediction markets might reflect public sentiment more accurately than traditional polling. 

“Event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation,” remarked Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, in a letter to the CFTC. 

With a focus on public opinion, these election betting markets remain a controversial yet highly followed aspect of the 2024 US election landscape, setting a new precedent in political betting. 

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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