Bitcoin options data shows 50% chance of $100K

Recent data suggests Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has a 50% probability of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024.

This figure is based on onchain options analysis, which indicates growing optimism among traders despite Bitcoin's recent pullback from its near $100,000 high.

According to Nick Forster, founder of an onchain options DeFi protocol, the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 rose to 45%, up from 34% last week.

Forster added that "there is even a 4% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $150,000," reflecting the market's robust demand for call options, which are contracts betting on price increases.

The data shows that 41.3% of Bitcoin options contracts traded are calls, while 38.3% are puts, which bet on price declines.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $92,680, a 7% drop from its recent peak of $99,541.

Analysts project a 68% probability of Bitcoin trading between $81,493 and $115,579 by year-end, with only a slim chance of falling below $70,000 or climbing as high as $137,645.

Market experts caution that further pullbacks are possible.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted in a recent post that "even during parabolic bull runs, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks," referencing similar corrections during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin surged from $17,000 to $64,000.

Ju emphasised the importance of risk management during such volatile periods.

Prominent analyst PlanC expressed optimism about Bitcoin consolidating in the $90,000 range.

"Spending time consolidating in the 90s would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market," he stated.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $93,413.64.