Bitcoin moves to $100K with focus on short-term demand

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) journey to $100,000 depends on a balance between short-term holder (STH) demand and long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

In November, Bitcoin achieved a record monthly close at $96,506, gaining 37.3% despite an 8.64% intra-week dip to $90,911 on November 26.

Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s halving years often drive significant price growth, averaging a 38.86% increase.

The report forecasts a positive medium-term outlook, though it warns of heightened volatility in December, driven by the year’s most significant options expiry and ongoing profit-taking by LTHs.

Since September, LTHs have distributed approximately 508,990 BTC, contributing to short-term price fluctuations.

While this is less than the 934,000 BTC sold during the rally to March’s $73,666 high, it remains a key factor impacting the market.

The STH supply, now nearing its cycle high of 3.28 million BTC, plays a pivotal role in sustaining upward momentum.

Historically, the final phase of Bitcoin’s bull markets occurs when STH supply surpasses pre-halving cycle highs.

“If the demand from short-term holders and marginal buyers does not match the supply being offloaded by LTHs, Bitcoin could experience further price volatility,” the report noted.

The Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), currently at 2.6, suggests that LTHs are taking profits, but the market has yet to reach a distribution peak.

Previous market tops occurred when the SOPR exceeded 3.

The report emphasised that for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, sufficient STH demand must absorb LTH supply.

While November’s momentum and halving-year trends point to continued growth, December’s volatility will require traders to closely monitor supply and demand dynamics.

Bitcoin’s next significant move hinges on whether the market can maintain balance amid these fluctuations.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $95,516.24.