Organization: Non-farm data exceeding expectations will not lead to a sustained rise in the dollar, the focus should be on Daly's speech early next morning
On December 6, Forexlive analyst Adam Button stated that no matter what happens this month, the following charts can explain the situation: Non-farm data shows a steady weakening trend, and the same is true in JOLTS job vacancy data. This has led almost all members of the Federal Reserve to believe that the job market is loosening up, and this will not change due to an employment report which will undoubtedly be boosted by the end of hurricanes, elections and Boeing strikes. If there's any difference, it's that final readings may be higher than consensus but I don't believe this would lead to a sustained rise in dollar value. Perhaps most importantly will be San Francisco Fed Chair Daly's speech at dawn Beijing time on the next day. She has always been Powell’s mouthpiece and might provide direction for Fed action in December. If we want to see a pause in rate hikes from Fed under other equal conditions, I think we need to see an increase of 300 thousand non-farm jobs.
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