Americans anticipate stock gains and political discord in 2025

A recent Gallup survey indicates that 66% of Americans expect the stock market to rise in 2025, reflecting increased optimism compared to prior years.

However, the same percentage predicts heightened political conflict domestically and internationally.

The survey, conducted from Dec. 4-15 with up to 100,000 respondents, followed Republican Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

This marked a notable shift in outlook, as confidence in the stock market rose by 30 percentage points from 2023’s survey during a period of high inflation and economic uncertainty.

Despite the bullish stock predictions, only 23% of respondents anticipate positive political cooperation within the U.S., while 32% foresee a somewhat peaceful international environment.

While these figures are improvements from 2023’s 9% and 14%, respectively, they still signal widespread concerns about discord.

Economic factors may further influence these expectations.

More than half of respondents (54%) predict increased employment opportunities, and 52% expect reasonable price growth.

However, many also see 2025 as a year of economic difficulty, citing rising federal deficits and the growing influence of China.

The outlook extends to the crypto markets, where historical trends suggest that stock market gains often coincide with Bitcoin rallies.

According to Newhedge, Bitcoin has a volatile correlation to the SP 500, though it often reacts more strongly to macroeconomic and geopolitical events.

For instance, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) dropped 8% during a retaliatory attack by Iran on Israel in 2023 and fell 11% during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

At the same time, Bitcoin surged during the U.S. banking crisis in early 2023, when institutions like Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.

Optimistic forecasts suggest a more crypto-friendly Trump administration could bolster Bitcoin’s performance in 2025, with discussions about a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve gaining traction.

However, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to reduce projected interest rate cuts for 2025 may dampen optimism for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, creating uncertainty for both crypto and traditional markets.