VanEck head says odds of 2025 Solana ETF listing are over 77%

Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck, believes that the odds of a Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the United States in 2025 are higher than the 77% forecasted by Polymarket, a popular prediction platform.

According to a statement made by Sigel on January 1, the 77% probability for a Solana ETF listing in 2025 indicated by Polymarket was “underpriced.”

Sigel’s views are in line with the overall sentiment within the cryptocurrency industry, which expects more crypto ETFs to be listed in the US following President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory.

Trump has expressed a desire to make the US the "world’s crypto capital."

Polymarket operates by allowing users to trade contracts linked to specific future events, with the odds fluctuating as expectations evolve.

As of January 2, Polymarket's odds for a Solana ETF listing in 2025 had risen to about 84%.

In June, VanEck and asset manager 21Shares filed requests with US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.

However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) raised concerns in August, questioning whether Solana qualifies as a security instead of a commodity.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and Ether (CRYPTO:ETH) ETFs are the only cryptocurrency ETFs currently allowed in the US, typically structured as “grantor trust” funds that hold a single type of commodity.

The success of Solana ETFs will likely depend on whether they can follow a similar structure.

Sigel’s optimism follows Trump’s election win, which he believes could increase the chances of more crypto ETFs being approved.

Betting markets are also reflecting a positive outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025, with many anticipating new crypto ETFs and possible new all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ether.

At the time of reporting, the Solana price was $207.47.