Polymarket odds favor Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation this week

Bettors on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket are predicting that Canada's Prime Minister will resign by the end of the week as prominent newspapers argue over the timing.

According to Polymarket's running odds, Justin Trudeau's chances of  stepping down by Friday are around 82% at the time of writing. Another contract places his odds of resigning by Wednesday  at 72%. A  resignation today has a 26% chance.

The bets come as Canadian newspaper The Toronto Star  reported that Trudeau will resign as early as today. The Globe and Mail initially  reported that  the announcement would precede a national Liberal Party caucus meeting slated for Wednesday. Reuters, meanwhile,  reported that Trudeau may not have yet made a final decision.

Trudeau's potential resignation comes alongside low approval ratings for the Prime Minister and his party — with Conservatives currently favored to win a parliamentary majority .

Polymarket, meanwhile,  exploded into the spotlight last year alongside the United States Presidential Election. In 2024, the platform experienced exponential growth in active traders, volume and open interest, with cumulative trading volume surpassing $9 billion.