4 US Economic Events to Drive Bitcoin Sentiment This Week

Crypto markets must brace for volatility this week, with four US economic data capable of influencing investors’ portfolios.

These macroeconomic data come as Bitcoin (BTC) remains below the $100,000 mark. Analysts anticipate further downsides, but a glimmer of hope remains, pegged to Donald Trump’s inauguration in seven days.

PPI

On Tuesday, the US PPI (Producer Price Index) data will be out, with the report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expected to have crypto implications. Specifically, the US PPI report offers insight into inflation at the producer level. It also provides early signals about future consumer prices and, therefore, can influence investor sentiment.

This week’s US PPI report will disclose December’s producer-level inflation, with a median forecast of 0.3%, down from 0.4% in November. November’s data exceeded both the forecast and consensus expectations, marking the fifth straight month of rising PPI. Elevated producer prices in November indicated that inflationary pressures were still persistent.

It indicated the Fed’s battle against inflation with higher interest rates was far from over. Therefore, financial markets, including crypto, will be watching this US economic data on Tuesday. Any significant deviation from expectations could influence rate-cut expectations and market sentiment.

CPI

Alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key focus in this week’s economic data. Last week’s FOMC minutes highlighted policymakers’ concerns about the potential inflationary impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, with little indication that the Fed might cut rates soon.

According to Reuters, economists expect year-over-year (YoY) headline CPI inflation to rise slightly to 2.8% from November’s 2.7%, with projections ranging between 2.6% and 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is predicted to increase to 3.3%.

As the market awaits the CPI release on Wednesday, higher-than-expected inflation could amplify doubts about the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates. This concern is further compounded by the inflationary effects of Trump’s proposals. Such developments could strengthen the US dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.

“I think we are going back to $100,000 and invalidate it if PPI and CPI data doesn’t cook us,” one crypto market participant said.

Blackrock Earnings

Key earnings reports this week include BlackRock, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.

BlackRock’s report will be closely watched due to its prominent role in driving institutional interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum through its IBIT and ETHA ETFs (exchange-traded funds).

“Looking forward to hearing a dividend increase announcement from BlackRock,” one popular user on X shared.

A dividend increase from BlackRock could signal that the firm sees its Bitcoin-related products as profitable and sustainable. Such a move could boost credibility for the cryptocurrency market, attracting more institutional investors.

Institutional players often seek signs of stability and profitability before entering new markets. A positive signal from BlackRock could encourage greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially driving price growth and broader market acceptance.

Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly jobless claims report on Thursday wraps up a series of US economic events with potential implications for the crypto market. Initial Jobless Claims track the number of first-time unemployment benefit applications filed in the past week, providing a snapshot of the labor market’s performance.

Recent data shows US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, with the unemployment rate dropping and weekly initial jobless claims hitting a low of 201,000. Additionally, the November JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed an upside surprise of nearly 8.1 million open jobs, reflecting a robust end to 2024 for the labor market.

Crypto markets will closely watch Thursday’s jobless claims report for signs of labor market softening. The median forecast stands at 210,000. Lower-than-expected claims would suggest continued job market strength, potentially signaling steady consumer spending and a resilient economy.

However, such strength might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates, which could boost the USD but weigh on Bitcoin.

“The job market is closely tied to consumer spending, which drives most of the US economy. A healthy job market boosts confidence and economic growth while rising unemployment can signal economic trouble ahead,” one user on X shared.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,045, a 0.5% dip since Monday’s session opened, according to BeInCrypto data.

BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

It is worth mentioning that this week’s US macroeconomic data come ahead of a monumental event for crypto in the US. On Monday, January 20, a market holiday, President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated. As part of his inaugural address to the nation, Trump could commit to a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.