Analyst: Three Chain Indicators Show Bitcoin Hasn't Reached Cycle Peak, Market Still Has Room to Rise

According to Golden Ten, analysts at 21Shares said that bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of the current bull cycle and the market still has room to rise based on three on-chain metrics: the MVRV ratio, net unrealized gains and losses, and the long term holders' seller's risk ratio.

Specifically, the MVRV (market capitalization/realized market capitalization) ratio is currently in the 2.5-3 range, which could be a local high, but is well below the top of the cycle at 7. Analysts expect the price of Bitcoin to break above $200,000 before reaching that level.

The Net Unrealized Gains and Losses indicator is currently in the range of 0.5-0.75 and would need to reach 0.75 to indicate that sentiment is overheated. The seller's risk ratio for long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) is only 0.4%, significantly below the 0.8% overheating threshold, and the recent pullback has been driven by short-term holders.

Analysts note that Bitcoin has gone through multiple four-year cycles since its introduction in 2009, with each cycle consisting of four phases: breakout, hype, correction and accumulation. Although the historical sample size is small, this cycle has been influenced by factors such as the approval of spot ETFs and increased institutional participation, and new changes in the performance of some indicators are likely to emerge. Nonetheless, the current indicators on the three major chains show that the market still has upside potential.