Long-term holders' chip distribution has started! BTC bull market may peak in 2025, historical data reveals key signals

According to the data on the proportion of long-term coin holders' chips on the BTC chain, within 5 months after each Bitcoin halving in history, the trend of chip distribution by long-term coin holders will intensify, usually indicating that the last big cycle of the bull market is coming. Looking back at the bull market cycles of 2017 and 2021, this phenomenon significantly appeared about 5 months after the halving.

 

On April 20th, 2024, Bitcoin ushered in a halving. According to historical patterns, between February and October 2025, the proportion of BTC long-term holders' chips may experience a sharp decline. This change usually means that the market will usher in the last wave of distribution, and the bull market may reach its peak during this period.

 

This period will become a key node of market attention, and investors should remain vigilant and prepare for possible market volatility.

 

The chart shows the changes in the chip share of long-term holders (holding coins for more than 155 days) during the three historical bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin, and aligns them with the halving date. From the data, about 5 months after the halving, the chip share of long-term holders usually begins to decline, indicating the distribution of chips in the market and the signal of the bull market topping out.