Matrixport: The "Spring Festival Market" for Bitcoin may reappear, with a historical increase probability of 83%

According to the latest report released by Matrixport, in the past 12 years, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns during the Chinese New Year period for 11 years. Statistically, an 83% success rate (hit rate) proves this period's profitability.

Bitcoin is currently in a complex interaction of opposing forces. Technically, daily reversal indicators reached oversold levels last week, suggesting potential support while weekly indicators still show that Bitcoin remains overbought. In terms of macroeconomics, unfavorable factors such as liquidity tightening and hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve have brought bearishness. Meanwhile, expectations for establishing a Bitcoin reserve in the United States and bullish driving factors like Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency stance provide support.

Since FOMC meeting in December 2024, stablecoin minting has stagnated reflecting a decrease in fiat inflow but bitcoin funding rates show early signs of trading activity recovery which puts bitcoin into consolidation phase. However with start of Chinese Lunar New Year on January 29th representing statistically most favorable twenty-day trading window for Bitcoin it could potentially offer ample opportunities for long positions.