Bitcoin bull market at risk? 7 indicators warn of BTC price ‘cycle top’

Bitcoin ( BTC ) risks starting its next multi-year downtrend this year as a basket of BTC price indicators nears sell-off territory.

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant published on Jan. 24 warns that the Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) is hinting at the end of the Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin indicator basket hits “distribution region”

Bitcoin has a raft of lofty price targets for 2025, with calls for $150,000 or more now widespread.

Onchain data, however, paints a different picture, CryptoQuant suggests.

“Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has reached the distribution region for the first time in 8 months, approaching the end of the range,” contributor Gaah summarized in one of its Quicktake market updates.

IBCI comprises seven onchain indicators, which include some of the most popular tools for tracking BTC price trends, such as the Puell Multiple, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).

Together, the index produces an overall idea of progress during a BTC price cycle, including when a macro top or bottom is potentially due.

Gaah now says that Bitcoin “may be approaching a possible cycle top, but without 100% confirmation yet.”

“For IBCI to reach 100%, all the indicators in the formula must reach the historical distribution range, the top regions. The same is true for tracking market bottoms,” he continued. 

“Historically, when IBCI reaches 100%, the market tends to enter correction phases and develop a bear market, but the current position suggests that there may still be room for growth before a definitive market top.”

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: CryptoQuant

Not all of the index’s constituent parts are flashing danger for Bitcoin bulls. 

The Puell Multiple, which measures the value of BTC issued daily against its 365-day moving average, remains firmly below classic top levels of 6 or higher.

IBCI also entered its macro top risk zone in early 2024, with this brief event ultimately not followed by a sustained downtrend.

Bitcoin IBCI chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

BTC price may yet see a fresh dip to $90,000

Looking back at past BTC price cycles, network economist Timothy Peterson saw expanded rangebound behavior continuing this year. 

Related: Crypto ‘confused’ on Trump stockpile as Bitcoin price rejects at $106K

BTC/USD, he predicted in a post on X this week, could reach $137,000 before falling back below the six-figure mark for its next local bottom.

“For the past 250 days, the correlation between this bull run and the 2015-2017 run has been 90%!” he reported.

BTC/USD cycle comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Earlier this month, Peterson made a long-term BTC price prediction of $1.5 million per coin by 2035 .

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.