Asia Colour

A week into Trump’s presidency and BTC dipped back below $100k, along with other risk assets, as news of China’s Deepseek continue to spread from the weekend. The Chinese LLM poses a potential threat to US equity markets by disrupting US AI dominance with their cost efficiency and groundbreaking open-source technology.

Now the question is how will Trump retaliate? Trump has already successfully used the tariff card, forcing Colombia to accept deported migrants. We’ll have to wait and see what drastic measures his administration might take to save the US equity market.

As for BTC, we do not foresee a break higher without confirmation on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The Trump administration’s evaluation for a ‘national digital asset stockpile’ was not enough to sustain bullishness in the market, at least in the near term. Risk reversals remain skewed in favor of Calls only from March onwards, indicating that the market is not expecting much until quarter-end. However with China’s Deepseek threatening the US market, we wouldn’t be surprised if Trump attempts to step in and play hero.

Friday vols and VIX continue to be elevated as the market precariously anticipates FOMC this Thursday (30 Jan). Despite today’s move and regardless of the outcome on Thursday, BTC should remain relatively resilient as it continues to trade in this familiar range.