Bitwise CIO says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may be broken by Trump’s new crypto executive order

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle suggests a major pullback in 2026, but Trump’s executive order may alter that pattern.
• Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and a growing mainstream financial presence could sustain the bull market longer than expected.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan discussed in a note to investors that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle might be disrupted due to Trump’s new crypto-focused executive order.

Bitcoin, currently trading above $102,000 with $100,000 as a support level, is expected to reach $200,000 in 2025 amid mainstream adoption and increasing flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan stated.

The crypto asset’s typical pattern of three years of gains followed by a sharp correction may not unfold as expected in 2026.

Trump’s executive order, which establishes digital assets as a national priority, provides a framework for regulatory clarity and increased institutional participation.

“With banks, asset managers, and corporations now positioning themselves in the space, [this] could sustain demand for Bitcoin beyond its typical cycle,” Hougan said.

The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary, which could influence the trajectory of risk assets including Bitcoin.

Hougan identified potential risk factors, including increased leverage and Bitcoin lending programs.

While a market correction remains possible, he expects it to be briefer and less severe than previous downturns, citing institutional investors and long-term buyers as stabilizing forces.