With January wrapped up, Cardano (ADA) added a comfortable 14.9% to its price. Nothing too shocking there — historically, January has been kind to ADA, with an average return of 19.7% and a median gain of 3.96%. It is almost expected at this point.
But now comes February, and things are not as straightforward. According to CryptoRank , the numbers split in two directions. The average return? A solid 36% gain. The median return? A much less encouraging -9.05%. That is a pretty big gap, and there is a reason for it.
Back in 2021, ADA had an outlier month, skyrocketing 277.9%. Take that one extreme case out of the equation, and suddenly the median paints a different picture — historically, February has not been great for Cardano , sitting closer to a -9.5% return.
So, what does this actually mean?
If history repeats itself, February leans bearish. It is not just about one or two years; ADA has struggled in February more often than not. But then again, history is not a rulebook, and exceptions happen.
Take 2024, for example. The median suggested losses, yet ADA still finished with a 32.2% gain. One month defied the norm, and that leaves the door open for another one to do the same.
There is also the reality that Cardano has not been around for that long — it only launched at the end of 2017. That is not a lot of data to work with, and in crypto, market conditions shift fast. Trends might offer hints, but they do not guarantee outcomes.
So, here we are. Two possible roads for ADA in February: follow the broader trend and slip into the red, or break the pattern again, just like it did last year. The data leans one way, but markets do not always listen. Which way will it go this time?
