- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete due to growing institutional adoption and regulatory shifts.
- He believes Bitcoin’s price movements are now driven more by economic catalysts—such as ETFs and pro-crypto policies.
The traditional four-year cycle that has historically dictated Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements may be a thing of the past, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. In a recent letter to clients, Hougan challenged the persistence of Bitcoin’s historical cycle , suggesting that policy shifts and institutional adoption could extend the current bull market well into 2026 and beyond.
The End of Bitcoin’s Traditional Cycle?
Bitcoin has long followed a predictable pattern: three years of strong growth followed by a significant pullback. Hougan himself identified this trend in mid-2022, accurately predicting the market rebound that unfolded in 2023 and 2024. Traditionally, if history repeated itself, 2025 would be another bullish year, followed by a correction in 2026. However, Hougan believes this cycle may no longer hold.
According to Hougan, BTC’s price movements have been less about the widely-discussed halving events and more influenced by economic and regulatory factors. In past cycles, major catalysts have sparked investor enthusiasm, leading to significant rallies, followed by corrections triggered by external pressures such as regulatory crackdowns or market collapses.
New Catalysts Driving Bitcoin’s Growth
Hougan points to recent events that have reshaped BTC’s trajectory. One key turning point was the March 2023 Grayscale legal victory against the SEC, which set the stage for the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs, launched in January 2024, attracted massive institutional investment, propelling Bitcoin from $22,218 to over $102,000.
Further fueling optimism, recent executive orders from former President Donald Trump have positioned digital assets as a “national priority.” These orders not only signal increased regulatory clarity but also hint at the potential creation of a “national crypto stockpile.” If coupled with a more crypto-friendly SEC, these changes could pave the way for even greater institutional participation in the Bitcoin market.
Hougan suggests that ongoing ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin purchases could push Bitcoin’s price beyond $200,000 by 2025. This level of adoption and interest was unimaginable in previous cycles, reinforcing his belief that Bitcoin is entering a new era.
A More Mature Market, Less Severe Corrections
One major factor Hougan highlights is the increasing role of institutional investors, which may prevent the extreme corrections seen in past cycles. Unlike retail-driven speculation in prior bull runs, today’s market is seeing more corporate and institutional Bitcoin purchases.
While leverage and speculation remain risks, Hougan believes that greater institutional involvement and clearer regulations will cushion potential downturns. He anticipates that while Bitcoin will still experience price fluctuations, the dramatic crashes of past cycles may be less severe.
