2025 is expected to be a strong year for Bitcoin, but 2026 could break away from past market patterns, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has disputed the idea that Bitcoin (BTC) is still following its historical four-year cycle, arguing that macroeconomic factors now drive the market more than halving events. In a recent letter to clients, Hougan suggested that Bitcoin’s traditional three strong years followed by a pullback pattern may no longer be valid, particularly due to changing U.S. policies.
Hougan previously identified Bitcoin’s repeating cycle in 2022, correctly predicting that the market would recover in 2023 and 2024. Based on past trends, 2025 is expected to be another strong year, but the outlook for 2026 could differ from previous cycles.
Hougan noted that Bitcoin cycles have historically been triggered by major catalysts, attracting new investors and building momentum. However, these cycles eventually lead to over-speculation and corrections, as seen in events such as:
- 2014: Mt. Gox collapse
- 2018: SEC crackdown on ICOs
Hougan believes that Bitcoin’s price trend is driven by major regulatory and economic changes rather than halvings.
Hougan cited Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC in 2023 as a key catalyst for the current bull run. That decision paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs to launch in January 2024, bringing major institutional investment into the crypto market.
Since the March 2023 decision, Bitcoin has risen from $22,218 to over $102,000. Hougan also noted that Donald Trump’s recent executive orders regarding digital assets were another important factor.
Hougan thinks that strong ETF inflows and institutional Bitcoin buying could push BTC beyond $200,000 by 2025. However, he acknowledged that market leverage is increasing, with more debt-funded Bitcoin purchases and lending programs fueling speculation.
Despite the volatility risk, Hougan believes institutional adoption and regulatory support will prevent overcorrections and signal a shift from previous cycles.
*This is not investment advice.
