Bitcoin volatility rises amid wider market caution ahead of US jobs data

Bitcoin experienced significant swings in the past 24 hours, dipping to a local low of $95,000 late Thursday before recovering slightly to trade around $97,000 at the time of writing. CoinGecko data indicates that the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $3.32 trillion — a decline of 2.9% over the last day.

"With a three-day losing streak, the outlook for the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain," QCP Capital analysts said. They added that caution spreading through broader financial markets is also weighing on digital assets.

Caution persists ahead of US employment data

Investors await non-farm payroll and unemployment figures for January — due out later today — which could provide clues as to the direction of interest rates for the year ahead. Expectations are for fewer jobs to have been added to the economy, at 170,000 against December’s 256,000, and unemployment remaining unchanged at 4.1%. "As we head into tonight’s non-farm payroll report, market sentiment remains cautious," QCP Capital analysts said.

Meanwhile, analysis from the CME FedWatch tool shows that expectations for further interest rate cuts are diminishing. Currently, interest rate traders project an 85.5% likelihood that rates will hold steady at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19. Looking further ahead, a 25‑basis-point cut in June is estimated at a 45.2% probability. However, interest rate traders are still posing a 37% likelihood that rates will remain steady at June's monetary policy meeting.

The QCP Capital analysts pointed to derivatives market data that showed interest in bitcoin end-of-February puts at $80,000 and $90,000 strike prices, a bearish indicator.

Meanwhile, in the latest update on U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to deregulate the cryptocurrency sector, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is downsizing its crypto enforcement unit. "This move is expected to facilitate the establishment of a new crypto task force and foster a more constructive relationship between the SEC and the industry," QCP Capital analysts said.