Bloomberg Analysts Predict 90% Chance of Spot Litecoin ETF Approval

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have tipped a 90% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin ETF by the end of 2025. Their projection positions Litecoin ahead of other proposed crypto ETFs, including XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, which they estimate have approval chances of 65%, 70%, and 75%, respectively.

Litecoin: Path to Approval Seems Clearer

According to Seyffart and Balchunas, Litecoin’s approval process may be the most straightforward due to its existing S-1 and 19b-4 filings, which the SEC has acknowledged. Additionally, Litecoin is likely viewed by the regulator as a commodity, similar to Bitcoin, which shares its proof-of-work consensus mechanism.

Although Seyffart doesn’t anticipate massive demand for a Litecoin ETF, he said even modest interest could make it worthwhile for fund companies. “They don’t have to hit it out of the park on a flows basis to be worthwhile from an issuer perspective,” he noted.

The SEC’s final decision on the Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs is expected between October 2 and October 18, though Seyffart suggested a Litecoin ETF could launch sooner.

Challenges Ahead for Solana and XRP ETFs

Despite optimism around Litecoin, Seyffart highlighted unresolved regulatory issues for XRP and Solana ETFs. The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC over XRP’s security status remains a significant obstacle. While a 2023 court ruling declared that XRP isn’t a security when traded on secondary markets, the SEC appealed the decision , asserting that Ripple violated securities laws when selling XRP to retail investors.

Ripple is now hopeful that the new SEC leadership under acting chair Mark Uyeda will withdraw the enforcement case.

For Solana, the SEC still needs to address its status before considering it under a “commodities ETF wrapper,” Seyffart explained.

What’s Ahead?

Looking ahead, analysts predict that U.S.-based ETF issuers may adopt a “spaghetti cannon approach,” filing multiple ETF proposals to see which ones gain approval and market traction.

Balchunas noted that before President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, the odds of approval for these crypto ETFs—except Litecoin—were below 5%. Since then, regulatory sentiment has shifted, paving the way for more crypto ETFs to enter the market .