Bitcoin's'Nine-Finger Top Chart 'releases key signal: upward space still exists, top has not yet been confirmed

The "Nine-Finger Top Chart" dynamically tracks the potential resistance levels of Bitcoin price by integrating nine core chain valuation indicators. The data shows that the current Bitcoin price is still below all key thresholds, and the market top has not yet been reached.

 

According to the model parameters, the price resistance band formed by the indicators on the nine necklaces spans the range of 144,000 to 211,000 US dollars. Among them, the fitted MVRV price (144,700 US dollars) and the Standard Deviation adjusted Baincode price (142,100 US dollars) constitute the first technical threshold, reflecting that the current market has not yet escaped the constraints of the historical valuation center. The higher level Fibonacci adjusted equilibrium price (152,100 US dollars) and the short-term holder MVRV price (160,700 US dollars) are closely related to the trader's position cost, and breakthroughs require significant incremental capital entry.

 

The mid-to-high level resistance reflects the behavior of miners and long-term holders: the top price of miner cost (181,900 USD) and the estimated income of miners (195,400 USD) highlight the anchoring effect of mining ecology on the coin price, while the median MVRV price (192,100 USD) and on-chain transfer price (211,500 USD) reflect the chip distribution characteristics of institutions and whales. Currently, most indicators still have more than 30% space from the current price, and market liquidity is not enough to support rapid breakthroughs.

 

Looking back at the historical performance of the model, the Bitcoin price needs to continuously break through at least three indicator lines to confirm a trending market. For example, during the bull market launch period at the end of 2020, the coin price broke through five resistance bands within 20 days, pushing the market into a frenzy phase. The current nine lines are evenly distributed in a stepped manner, indicating both the existence of multiple buffer zones in the price and the lack of a single strong catalyst.

 

If it fails to stand firm at the 145,000 dollar level in the short term, the market may continue the oscillation pattern of "three in three and two in two". The phenomenon of low contract volume in the derivatives market and the increase in the stock of stablecoins on exchanges all confirm the contraction of investors' risk appetite. With the expectation of the Fed's policy shift heating up, the crypto market may need to wait for the resonance signal of macro liquidity inflection point and on-chain data.