Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has issued a critical assessment of Bitcoin’s price action, warning that BTC is at a decisive level. According to the firm, Bitcoin needs to hold onto support above $88,000 to avoid a steeper drop.
At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading around $87,000.
Alpha Price models from Alphractal show potential downside targets of $76,000 and $66,000 if Bitcoin fails to hold above these key levels. Despite this bearish sentiment, the firm notes that the market remains focused on external news, such as MicroStrategy’s $2 billion Bitcoin purchase and the Bybit hacker incident, while critical on-chain signals are being ignored.
A key concern outlined in Alphractal’s analysis is the behavior of Short-Term Holders (STH). Data suggests that these investors are slowing down their Bitcoin accumulation, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment.
The Accumulation and Distribution metric for STH reflects changes in Bitcoin supply over different time periods. Notably:
- The 30-day variation, which has historically marked the peaks of market euphoria and despair, is decreasing.
- The 365-day variation appears to have reached a local peak, with the metric peaking on December 31, 2024.
Alphractal warns that if the monthly variation continues to fall or turns negative, it indicates that Short-Term Holders are more inclined to sell their Bitcoin. Furthermore, if the yearly variation stagnates or enters negative territory, the market could be even more bearish. A move into the “red zone” could indicate that the main bullish phase of the cycle is already over.
*This is not investment advice.
