U.S. bond investors anticipate a shift in Federal Reserve policy, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds may fall below 4%

U.S. bond investors are beginning to bet that the focus of Federal Reserve policy will shift from curbing inflation to dealing with slowing economic growth. Under this expectation, U.S. bonds have risen for six consecutive trading days, and yields have fallen to their lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley strategists suggest that if market expectations for Fed policy change slightly, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds could fall below 4%. Currently, traders have resumed expecting two rate cuts (each by 25 basis points) from the Fed this year and anticipate further cuts next year to around 3.65%. The bank believes that if market expectations drop interest rates to about 3.25%, the yield on a ten-year US Treasury bond may fall below 4%.