Bitcoin’s Volatile Ride: Short-Term Holders Are Holding Strong Amid Losses

Bitcoin has seen some volatility recently, with its price facing significant challenges. Despite these setbacks, the cryptocurrency is forming a bullish pattern. 

Investors, particularly short-term holders (STHs), have shown resilience by moving towards accumulation, which supports the notion of potential recovery in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Investors Are Hopeful

Bitcoin’s realized losses have been a key indicator of the current market’s struggles. This week, the realized losses across all market participants reached $818 million per day, which is among the highest values in recent times. The only larger recorded loss was the yen-carry-trade unwind on August 5, 2024, which totaled $1.34 billion. 

These substantial losses reveal that many investors have been forced to sell their positions below their cost basis, pressured by the ongoing market downturn. Despite this, the significant realized losses suggest that many investors are feeling the weight of the current volatility, yet some continue to hold their positions.

Bitcoin Realized Losses. Source: Glassnode

On a more positive note, Bitcoin’s network growth has been on the rise. The number of short-term holders has increased, with 50,000 more wallets on the network compared to a month ago. Specifically, there has been a rise of 37,390 new wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC, and 12,754 wallets holding between 0.1 and 100 BTC. 

The growth in the number of Bitcoin wallets reflects strong conviction among these short-term investors. Despite the ongoing price fluctuations, their continued involvement in the market indicates that many are looking beyond the current downturn. This is an important factor in supporting Bitcoin’s potential recovery, as it suggests that the base of holders remains strong and that interest in the cryptocurrency is far from fading.

Bitcoin STH Holders. Source:  Santiment

BTC Price Rise Likely

Bitcoin’s price has shown a 6% recovery in the last 24 hours, trading at $92,776 as of the latest update. The cryptocurrency is nearing the critical resistance level of $93,625, which it has struggled to breach in recent days. A successful breach of this resistance could mark the beginning of a bullish breakout, pushing Bitcoin higher.

If Bitcoin manages to flip $93,625 into support, it could pave the way for a rise towards $95,761. Such a move would also indicate a potential breakout from the descending broadening wedge pattern that has dominated the market in recent weeks. Should this happen, Bitcoin could find itself heading towards the psychologically significant $100,000 mark, marking a strong recovery from its recent volatility.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

However, if Bitcoin fails to break through $93,625, it could fall back to the $89,800 support level. A failure to hold at this point could delay the recovery further and even push Bitcoin to test lower levels, with $87,041 acting as a crucial support. A move below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and extend the current downtrend.