Viewpoint: ETH/BTC exchange rate may fall another 30%

 several analysts warned that the ETH/BTC exchange rate may further decline in the coming weeks. Cryptocurrency analyst Alessandro Ottaviani described the current situation as a "falling knife" scenario, indicating that the asset is experiencing a rapid and steep decline.

On the technical side, the relative strength index (RSI) on the two-week chart of ETH/BTC has dropped to a historic low of 23.32. Although an RSI below 30 usually indicates an oversold condition that may trigger a rebound, Ethereum's RSI has continued to decline for two months after being oversold, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing. If it fails to rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, ETH/BTC may continue to decline to the 0.020-0.016 BTC range, a further drop of about 30% from the current price.

Fundamental factors also support a bearish outlook. Ethereum faces strong challenges from competitors like Solana, with VanEck data showing that Solana's decentralized exchange trading volume has surpassed that of Ethereum. In addition, the launch of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted the traditional cryptocurrency market cycle, with $129 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 draining liquidity from altcoin markets, including Ethereum.