Bitcoin bull market could be over until 2026 based on PnL index – CryptoQuant CEO

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s latest bullish cycle has concluded, signaling a likely shift to bearish or sideways momentum for the next six to 12 months.

The Profit and Loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals indicate a recent peak, aligning with historical patterns marking the end of growth phases. Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of $109,300 during President Trump’s second inauguration on Jan. 20, now may be poised for correction or consolidation.

Bitcoin PnL Cycles (Source: CryptoQuant)

Historical trends from prior Bitcoin cycles consistently show a pattern of price peaks followed by prolonged consolidation phases. Young Ju believes current signals closely mirror previous cycle tops, reinforcing expectations of muted performance in the near term.

Following Trump’s election victory in November 2024, Bitcoin surged rapidly. However, as optimism waned and market forces shifted, momentum gradually tapered, culminating in the current cycle peak.

The data from the PnL Index chart suggest Bitcoin investors may encounter sustained price stagnation or declines through much of 2025.

However, should Bitcoin follow past halving cycle timelines, the peak would be around September 2025. Bitcoin has historically taken around 500 – 550 days to reach the cycle top from the last halving and 780 – 990 days to reach the cycle bottom, advancing by around 100 days each cycle. This would place the market bottom around May 2027.

Bitcoin halving cycle patterns (Source: TradingView)

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