Macro Outlook for Next Week: Trump Overturns the Table, April 2nd May Become a Watershed for Global Assets

On March 29, next Wednesday (April 2) is the globally anticipated day for Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Prior to this, investors have been more cautious due to uncertainty about which tariffs Trump will specifically implement. US bank foreign exchange analysts Athanasios Vamvakidis and Claudio Piron stated in a report that risks are balanced before the final deadline next week. The imposition of tariffs on specific products is already expected by the market. Comprehensive tariffs would be a negative surprise and it is expected that under these circumstances, the dollar will not continue to strengthen. Against a backdrop of high market risk aversion sentiment, gold has repeatedly hit new highs this week, with historical records rising to $3086.75/ounce, refreshing its 18th record high within the year and achieving a quarterly increase of 17%, which is the largest since 1986. Below are key points that markets will focus on in the coming week:

Monday 21:45, U.S. March Chicago PMI

Tuesday 21:45, U.S. March final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 

Wednesday 20:15, U.S. March ADP Employment Numbers 

Thursday 01:00, Speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde 

Thursday 19:30, European Central Bank releases minutes of the March monetary policy meeting

Thursday 19:30, Number of layoffs in U.S. Challenger businesses in March

Friday 00:00, Speech by Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson 

Friday 20:30, U.S. unemployment rate for March, U.S. non-farm employment population after seasonal adjustment for March, Average hourly wage annual/monthly rate in the U.S. for March

Friday 23:25, Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell