Market Pulse: Week 13

Overview

The Bitcoin market continues to face headwinds as liquidity inflows remain weak and speculative conviction struggles to regain strength. Spot market activity showed a brief uplift, with price momentum rising alongside a modest uptick in open interest. However, spot volume and CVD declined further, suggesting the recent rally was viewed as an opportunity to exit rather than a sign of renewed accumulation. ETF markets, a critical anchor for institutional demand, remain fragile, with trade volume trending lower and netflows rebounding modestly but failing to regain the strength seen during the late 2024 surge.

Futures markets showed mixed signals. Open interest stabilized with some traders positioning around the bounce, yet funding rates turned negative and perpetual CVD slipped, indicating growing short-side conviction and fading bullish momentum. In options markets, open interest ticked up slightly, likely due to opportunistic demand amid low premiums, while volatility spread dropped further and 25-Delta Skew flattened, highlighting sustained hedging demand and elevated downside protection behavior.

On-chain metrics remain under pressure as active addresses, transfer volumes, and fee revenues continue to show persistent weakness, implying lower retail and economic throughput. Liquidity indicators such as realized cap growth and hot capital share also continued to trend lower, underscoring a transition towards cautious capital behavior and reduced speculative activity. Profitability metrics saw minor recoveries following the price rebound, though indicators like NUPL and Realized P/L Ratio remain well below euphoric thresholds, suggesting most investors are still in wait-and-see mode.

Overall, while the market experienced a short-term bounce, data across ETF, futures, and on-chain indicators point to a lack of sustained follow-through. The prevailing environment remains defensive, and unless liquidity inflows meaningfully return, the market risks reverting back to a broader corrective phase. Without deeper conviction and stronger participation, the recent strength could prove to be a bear market relief rally rather than the start of a lasting uptrend.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 

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