TRUMP memecoin drops 10% as tariffs raise economic risk indicators

TRUMP, the Solana-based memecoin launched by U.S. President Donald Trump, has fallen 10.36% over the past 24 hours, placing it seventh among the biggest losers across all digital assets by market capitalization.

The price decline follows the formal announcement of sweeping new U.S. tariffs that have roiled markets and triggered a spike in perceived recession risk.

TRUMP is trading at $9.29, down nearly 19.4% over the past week and 28.84% over the past month. Its market cap is $1.86 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $834.75 million. The token is now 87.63% below its all-time high of $75.27, reached on Jan. 19, 2025.

The downturn coincides with an immediate shift in macro sentiment. Polymarket’s prediction market recorded a sharp rise in the probability of a U.S. recession this year, with odds jumping from 42% to 52% overnight following the tariff announcement.

The correlation comes amid concern that the blanket 10% tariff on all imports, paired with additional country-specific penalties, could raise input costs across key sectors, pressuring both consumers and corporate earnings.

Signals and ownership structure weigh on sentiment

On-chain metrics indicate deteriorating conditions for TRUMP holders. According to IntoTheBlock data, just 1% of addresses are currently in profit at the prevailing price. The token exhibits a 0.47 correlation with Bitcoin, suggesting partial exposure to broader market trends, yet recent price action has diverged meaningfully.

Concentration remains high, with 77% of the circulating supply held by large addresses, most of which are affiliated with entities tied to Trump, including CIC Digital LLC. No large transactions over $100,000 were recorded in the past week, and network growth was flat at 0.05%. Telegram membership declined by 3.82% over the same period. These figures align with a “mostly bearish” signal classification across all tracked indicators.

The composition of holders reveals that 86% have held the token for between one and twelve months, with only 13% classified as long-term holders. This skew toward medium-term speculative positions raises the probability of continued selling pressure amid uncertainty.

Memecoin mechanics meet political volatility.

The Trump memecoin launched in early 2025 amid a surge in politically themed digital assets and quickly reached a $24 billion valuation on day one of trading. The initial spike was driven by Trump’s direct social media promotion and association with the “Make America Great Again” branding, which energized speculative traders and supporters.

However, the token’s utility remains undefined beyond its role as a political meme and fundraising tool. The lack of transparent governance and concerns around centralized holdings have raised skepticism within parts of the crypto community.

The recent tariff announcement introduced additional volatility into a market already facing macro headwinds. While major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also struggled, meme tokens and lower-liquidity assets have experienced sharper corrections as risk premiums widen.

Per IntoTheBlock, TRUMP’s transaction demographics skew slightly westward, with 53% of activity originating from Western jurisdictions. This means 47% of trade in the official U.S. President’s memecoin occurs outside the country in Eastern countries.

As the tariff policy begins to be implemented, further market repricing may occur across politically exposed assets. For now, TRUMP’s decline reflects a broader risk-off move as investors digest both the potential inflationary impact of the trade realignment and the possibility of economic contraction within the next three quarters.

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