Bitcoin bear market signals from $100K sell pressure and metrics

Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant, has highlighted a bearish trend in Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) market behavior, citing the divergence between realised cap and market cap.

Realised cap measures the average cost basis of Bitcoin holdings, reflecting actual capital inflows, while market cap represents the perceived value based on the last traded price.

Ju explained that when realised cap rises while market cap stagnates, it indicates capital entering the market without price appreciation—a sign of bearish momentum.

Ju noted that current data shows realised cap increasing as investors accumulate Bitcoin, but prices remain stagnant due to high selling pressure.

He referenced past instances, such as MicroStrategy's convertible bond-driven Bitcoin purchases, which amplified paper gains during periods of low sell pressure.  

However, he emphasised that "when sell pressure is high, even large purchases fail to move the price," pointing to Bitcoin’s trading near $100K with massive volumes but little price movement.

Critics have argued that onchain metrics like realised cap may overlook off-exchange activities.

Ju countered this by stating that major capital flows—including exchange transactions, custodial movements, and ETF-related trades—are visible onchain.

He added that bear market reversals historically take at least six months, suggesting short-term rallies are unlikely.

The divergence between realised cap and market cap has been mapped across Bitcoin’s historical bull and bear cycles.

Ju’s analysis aligns with patterns showing steep repricing during bull markets and sideways plateaus during bear markets.

These trends reflect investor sentiment shifts and capital redistribution.

While current metrics signal caution, Ju acknowledged Bitcoin's history of defying expectations.

Factors such as institutional adoption, regulatory clarity under Trump’s administration, or favorable macroeconomic conditions could reignite bullish momentum despite prevailing sell pressure.

"A surprise bullish advancement could attract fresh capital," Ju remarked, potentially realigning realised and market caps.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $75,021.22.