Base and stablecoins set stage for Coinbase to become ‘mission-critical’ crypto infrastructure, Cantor Fitzgerald says

Traders and investors are recovering from the market onslaught over the past week. The price of bitcoin is still trading under $80,000, but the world's largest cryptocurrency has held up relatively well compared to traditional equities.

Institutional crypto adoption remains stalled due to regulatory uncertainty, leaving crypto markets largely driven by retail traders and hedge funds. Analysts suggest bitcoin may be evolving into a hedge against U.S. economic isolation and could rebound faster than other risk assets. One stock poised to benefit greatly from institutional adoption, according to Cantor Fitzgerald, is Coinbase.

"We believe institutionalization of crypto, like the internet, is a decade- or multi-decade-long trend, with the first barrier to enabling this trend to take off being on the regulatory front," Cantor analysts Brett Knoblauch and Thomas Shinske wrote Tuesday in a note to clients. "We expect we will soon see a 'ChatGPT' moment when it comes to web3, and there is, in our view, no better way to play this dynamic than COIN given it has its hands in virtually every aspect of the crypto ecosystem."

It is for this reason that Cantor expects Coinbase's business to be perceived less like a trading platform and more as "a mission-critical infrastructure layer of the crypto economy." In particular, the analysts said, Coinbase's Ethereum Layer 2 Base and relationship with stablecoin issuer Circle are instrumental in changing the narrative. 

Base positions Coinbase strongly by offering faster, cheaper transactions and seamless user onboarding into onchain ecosystems, the analysis said, helping it outpace other Ethereum L2 solutions. As user growth fuels developer interest and dapp creation, Base’s momentum could drive a long-term flywheel effect that significantly benefits COIN — an edge the market may be undervaluing.

The L2 saw 4.15 million new unique addresses on March 30, its highest single-day jump in users following a parabolic increase that began in the preceding two weeks, according to Basescan . However, both the transaction count  and  active addresses on Base remained stagnant.

"This discrepancy indicates that a significant portion of the new address growth may be inorganic or at least driven by short-term incentives or bot-generated activity," according to The Block's Research team. "In cases where address generation grows rapidly without a matching uptick in actual usage, it often suggests the creation of multiple addresses by a single user or bots."

Meanwhile, the largest component of subscription and services revenue is stablecoins, which generated $910 million of revenue for Coinbase in 2024, up from $694 million in 2023. Cantor says Circle and Tether will maintain a similar share of the stablecoin market well into the future and predicts the stablecoin market can exceed $1 trillion by 2030. This could result in Coinbase's stablecoin revenue increasing by 5-10x, depending on where short-term yields go.

As such, the firm initiated coverage on COIN with an "overweight" rating and $245 price target, suggesting about 53% upside from the stock's current levels.

"We would note that our valuation multiple represents, in our view, a 'down year' in terms of volumes, revenue, and earnings," the Cantor analysts wrote in the note. "We believe if seasonality holds true, crypto markets will be down in 2026. As such, we believe we are applying a reasonable multiple on what could be trough earnings for COIN. Should 2026 divert from historical seasonality, we see significant upside to our 2026 estimates and thus valuation."

Coinbase shares are trading higher by 4% to $163.76 in Tuesday's session. The stock is down about 36% in the year-to-date period.

Of note, Secretary of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick previously served as CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald for nearly 35 years.

"Under Lutnick's leadership, Cantor Fitzgerald began managing the reserves backing Tether's USDT stablecoin in late 2021. Lutnick has been a vocal supporter of Tether, frequently defending it against criticism," The Block's RT Watson reports . "Further strengthening these ties, Cantor Fitzgerald also acquired a 5% ownership stake in Tether."

As President Donald Trump’s administration continues its friendlier approach to crypto, Coinbase's CFO expressed optimism last month about renewed discussions with the SEC to potentially allow the company to introduce a security token and international crypto products to the U.S. market.