The latest Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday

latest meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve will be released at 2 am on Thursday Beijing time. These minutes detailed the discussions of the policy meeting on March 19-20 - when the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and signaled three interest rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points.

However, times have changed, and the market landscape has undergone a drastic change. Since Trump announced the global tariff plan on April 2, the US stocks plummeted, with many economists warning of a possible economic recession this year. Powell's speech on April 4 clearly shifted to a hawkish stance, warning that "we are facing a highly uncertain outlook, while also facing the risks of rising unemployment and inflation." The latest futures market data shows that traders have raised their expectations of interest rate cuts to four times within the year.

Although these meeting minutes reflect the policy considerations of the "pre-tariff era," they still reveal the consensus of the decision-makers at the Federal Reserve at that time. Ianna Appio, senior analyst at First Eagle Global Value, pointed out: "At the March meeting, there were significant differences in the decision-makers' forecasts for the economic outlook."

Market analysts will also focus on the discussion in the minutes regarding financial stability. Since March, vulnerabilities in the credit market have worsened and volatility has continued to rise. If the minutes show that the Federal Reserve was already vigilant about potential risks in the financial system at that time, investors may need to reassess their policy determination. (Jinshi)