What it would take for bitcoin to top all-time highs

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

I have some good news: The Forward Guidance guys — Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson — still feel pretty good about bitcoin. 

But I also have some bad news: Thompson’s not super keen on alts here. 

In this morning’s episode of Empire, we saw two worlds collide as Empire’s Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos spoke to Thompson and Jauvin about the macro outlook and, of course, crypto. 

Aside from Thompson’s astute point that he’s finding certain levels in crypto to be “interesting” but not necessarily worth throwing “a dart on the dartboard,” Jauvin’s points about bitcoin’s potential performance caught my attention. 

“ I’m bullish Bitcoin and crypto on a mean reversion basis, but for an explosion past all-time highs on — let’s focus on Bitcoin, ’cause I do think our asset class is getting old enough where we start piecing those apart separately,” he explained. To sum it up: Folks would have to bet against President Trump’s investment thesis if we want bitcoin to jump past all-time highs.

Basically, Jauvin argues that some of the things that aren’t great for macro — like the bond market and US dollar losing faith, and the Federal Reserve being forced to act — would be fantastic for bitcoin. 

“These are factors that bitcoin was born for,” he noted. 

It’s not stopping Jauvin from remaining bullish on things like stablecoins and the underlying technological advances pushing crypto forward, though. 

“ People want alts to leverage Bitcoin a lot. You almost might be better off if you look at the stats and run the ratios of risk leveraging your Bitcoin,” Thompson explained.

Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

• Blockworks Daily : Unpacking crypto and the markets.
• Empire : Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
• Forward Guidance : The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
• 0xResearch : Alpha directly in your inbox.
• Lightspeed : All things Solana.
• The Drop : Apps, games, memes and more.
• Supply Shock : Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.