Initial jobless claims fall, but continuing claims hit post-pandemic high

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

Fewer people than expected filed for unemployment benefits last week, data released this morning shows. 

Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000, coming in at 215,000 for the week ended April 12 — a sign that neither federal layoffs nor tariffs are weighing on the labor market. At least for now. 

Continuing claims, however, are on the rise, signaling that while companies may not be engaging in significant layoffs, they also aren’t ramping up hiring. There are now 1.89 million people receiving unemployment benefits, a level not seen since November 2021. 

The report comes a day after Chair Powell assured markets that the labor market is in “a really good place.” He added, however, that maintaining this health is dependent on price stability. 

Tariffs, of course, pose a threat. But Powell (and most of the Fed governors) have consistently said they’ll just have to wait and see how things shake out. In other words, they’re not cutting rates on the expectation of persistently higher inflation. 

The market took him seriously; odds of a May 25bps cut dropped from 15% to 10% yesterday, per data from CME Group. 

President Trump this morning again criticized Powell, writing on Truth Social that the Fed head’s “termination cannot come soon enough.” Trump has said in the past he’d like to fire Powell, an action experts say is legally questionable. 

It’s unclear if he was signaling that he’d like to do so, or if he’s simply anticipating the end of Powell’s term in May 2026.

Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

• Blockworks Daily : Unpacking crypto and the markets.
• Empire : Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
• Forward Guidance : The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
• 0xResearch : Alpha directly in your inbox.
• Lightspeed : All things Solana.
• The Drop : Apps, games, memes and more.
• Supply Shock : Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.