SUI’s May 1st Unlock Brings Risk and Reward as TVL Surges Past $1 Billion

• SUI faces $267M token unlock as bulls aim to defend $3.14 level ahead of May 1 volatility.
• TVL surges past $1B as Sui Network fundamentals show strength before upcoming token unlock.
• MACD remains bullish while RSI warns of cooling, setting up key price prediction zones.

Sui Network (SUI) is once again on the radar of crypto investors, with a massive unlock of 74 million SUI tokens ($267.88 million) scheduled for May 1, 2025. Historically, such unlocks have stirred significant volatility in the token’s price, but past data suggests the aftermath could offer strategic opportunities for both bulls and bears.

In October 2024, an unlock of 64 million SUI tokens caused short-term volatility before bullish momentum returned. Catalysts like the launch of the Grayscale SUI Trust and a sharp rise in Total Value Locked (TVL) helped drive a strong rally.

A similar setup followed the September 2024 unlock, where an initial 20% dip gave way to a price surge over the next few months.

Related: Sui (SUI) Price Prediction 2025 to 2030: Key Targets, Market Trends, and Long-Term Growth Potential

Stronger Fundamentals Could Cushion the Unlock Impact

This latest unlock comes against a stronger backdrop for Sui’s fundamentals. TVL has surpassed the $1 billion mark and is moving toward $2 billion, as per DefiLlama . Rising TVL signals deeper network adoption and could help absorb some of the incoming supply pressure. 

However, distribution dynamics remain critical. About 61% of the unlocked tokens are allocated to Series A and B early investors, a group historically inclined to realize gains during liquidity events. Meanwhile, 20% of the tokens are designated for community reserves and ecosystem development, allocations that typically aim to foster long-term growth rather than immediate selling.

SUI Technical Levels to Watch Into May

SUI is currently hovering near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at $3.14 on the daily SUI/USDT chart, a critical technical zone for trend continuation. 

Sustained momentum could push prices toward the next major resistance levels around $3.84 (2.618 extension) and $4.53 (3.618 extension), with the $4.96 zone (4.236 extension) coming into view if market sentiment remains bullish.

Technical indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook. The MACD continues to widen with positive momentum, and the histogram is printing larger green bars, pointing to sustained buying pressure.

Related: Robust Fundamentals Power SUI’s 60%+ Weekly Gain as Network Taps Real-World Mastercard Payments

On the other hand, the RSI is flashing a warning, currently sitting at 77.89, deep into overbought territory. This signals a potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation before any further upside.