- Ash Crypto predicts Bitcoin may surge to $200K in a second bull run.
- On-chain metrics show bearish divergences, echoing warning signs from the 2021 cycle.
- Institutional interest is strong, but declining volume and open interest suggest weakening momentum.
Bitcoin — BTC , isn’t done surprising us. According to top analyst Ash Crypto, the ride isn’t over yet. He believes we’re entering Round 2 of the bull run—with Bitcoin possibly smashing through $150K and soaring toward $200K. That’s not just optimism; it’s a direct challenge to growing doubts about current market momentum. But beneath the bullish noise, warning signs are quietly surfacing—whispers that feel a little too familiar for comfort.
Echoes of 2021: Familiar Patterns Resurface
Back in 2021, the price of Bitcoin sprinted to $65K, fueled by hype from MicroStrategy and Coinbase’s IPO. Traders quickly pounced on that excitement. They shorted the news, and Bitcoin slid to $28K just two months later. Then came the unexpected twist: a sharp rally that pushed Bitcoin to a new record of $69K. Today, the price is flirting with six figures again. However, this run carries an eerie resemblance to that 2021 setup. On-chain indicators are showing similar warning signals.
Volume tells the same story. Institutional venues show declining interest. CME’s BTC futures have dropped below 35,000 contracts in three of the past four weeks. In contrast, the earlier rally saw volume push above 85,000 on multiple occasions. Open interest also mirrors 2021. Despite price staying close to January’s high, open interest has fallen by 13%. Four years ago, open interest was 15.6% lower during Bitcoin’s final record push. The pattern seems too precise to ignore.
New Tools, Old Risks
This cycle has more firepower. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have cracked open the gates for traditional investors. Giants like MicroStrategy continue scooping up Bitcoin, building massive positions with corporate cash and leverage. Newcomers are copying that model. But this frenzy adds fragility. If things turn, leveraged players may face swift liquidations.
Bitcoin DeFi is another wild card. Over $6.3 billion sits locked in protocols built on Bitcoin. That’s a new layer of risk. And the memecoin craze? It’s a powder keg. These tokens explode in bull markets but vanish fast when things get rough. If Trump announces a U.S. Bitcoin treasury, prices could break records. But that could become a “sell the news” moment, just like Coinbase’s IPO in 2021. Traders may front-run retail buyers and trigger a fast correction.
Analysts calling for $200K might be right—but they could also face another brutal twist. The 2021 rally ended in a year-long bear market. Companies collapsed. Thousands lost jobs. And dreams turned to dust. Bitcoin might climb higher, but every step forward feels more uncertain. Round 2 is heating up, but the shadow of the past walks close behind.
