Bitcoin must break $110K before alt season begins, says Arthur Hayes

Key Takeaways

• Arthur Hayes expects altcoin rotation after Bitcoin tops $110,000.
• Hayes forecasts Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028, coinciding with the end of Trump's presidency.

Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and rally toward the $150,000–$200,000 range on rising trading volume for the alt season to begin, said BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in a recent interview with Fortune Crypto.

“I think that happens sometime in the summer or early third quarter, and then the rotation starts into various altcoins,” Hayes noted , when asked what level Bitcoin needs to reach to trigger an altcoin rally.

Alt season describes the market phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin, historically occurring after BTC rallies when traders shift capital from BTC into altcoins seeking greater upside.

Bitcoin has led the market in recent weeks, but altcoins have been slower to respond.

According to Hayes, unlike the explosive altcoin rally of 2021, where nearly every token surged regardless of fundamentals, the next cycle will likely be more selective.

He believes a new narrative will drive attention and speculative trading in specific assets, but warns that many “dino coins” are unlikely to recover.

“A lot of those coins have high FDV, low float, no customers, no revenue, just some CEX listings, that went down 95%, I don’t really see why those should do well in the next cycle,” he added.

Hayes, who now manages the Maelstrom fund after receiving a pardon from President Donald Trump earlier this year, expects Bitcoin to climb toward $200,000 in its next surge and reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

He projects Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2028, just as Trump’s term is set to conclude.

Bitcoin logged its highest weekly close on May 18, finishing above $106,000 and extending its winning streak to six consecutive weeks. The rally has been fueled by persistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady corporate demand.

On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly touched $107,000 before pulling back. At the time of writing, it was trading near $103,000, around 6% below its all-time high of $109,500, set in January.

Hayes maintains a large position in gold, he revealed during the interview, with around 20% of his portfolio allocated to the asset.

His holdings include physical gold stored in a vault as well as substantial investments in gold mining equities, which he believes remain undervalued despite the metal’s rising prices.

On Ethereum versus Solana, Hayes favors Ethereum’s prospects. The analyst believes that Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals and ecosystem strength make it a better bet than Solana in the near future, despite its recent price struggles and the criticism it faces.

“I think that Ethereum could outperform Solana in this next sort of 18-24 months bull run,” he said.