As Bitcoin trades near its recently established ATH, a crucial factor is missing from the surge: widespread retail activity. But the latest data points to early signs of movement.
Such a comeback could push the world’s largest cryptocurrency to secure more gains.
Early Signs of Retail Interest
CryptoQuant’s analysis highlighted a notable disconnect in the current Bitcoin rally. As BTC hit new all-time highs in Q2 2025, retail investor activity remained subdued. Data tracking Bitcoin transfers in the $0-$10,000 range, a common proxy for retail demand, shows a marginal increase despite rising prices.
The 30-day percentage change in retail volume remains mostly flat, suggesting that large investors and institutions are primarily fueling the rally at this stage.
Historical patterns from previous bull markets, such as in 2020-2021, indicate that while institutional momentum often initiates the uptrend, sustained and accelerated growth typically requires strong retail participation. Without a significant increase in retail demand, the current price surge may lack long-term stability.
However, CryptoQuant observed early signs of retail interest. While these have yet to develop into a meaningful breakout, the key takeaway is that for Bitcoin’s price to continue its upward trajectory sustainably, a clear boost in retail investor engagement is essential. Should retail volume pick up in the coming weeks, the new all-time highs may mark just the beginning of a broader rally.
Institutional demand, on the other hand, remained firm as evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $385 million in net inflows on May 27, thereby extending their streak of daily net inflows to nine consecutive sessions.
Drivers of Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run
If the retail fails to make a comeback, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno expects the next crypto “mania” may be driven not by retail investors but by smaller firms and funds following Michael Saylor’s BTC accumulation model. However, it is important for these entities to be ready to endure the cryptocurrency’s notorious volatility, especially during sharp market downturns.
Increasingly, non-crypto companies are adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Japan’s Metaplanet, with 7,800 BTC, is leading the trend, alongside Hong Kong-based Boyaa Interactive with 2,410 BTC in Asia, while US-based Semler Scientific currently holds 3,808 BTC. All these firms are aiming to replicate the high-profile success of Saylor’s strategy and integrate Bitcoin into their long-term financial positioning.
