Opinion: Fed Minutes Expected to Reaffirm Wait-and-See Stance in Response to Trump's Unpredictability

The Federal Reserve weakened market expectations for its near-term policy rate adjustments at the May meeting, and the minutes released on Wednesday may show the extent to which policymakers are committed to their current wait-and-see approach. These minutes will be published at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, but some key content has been overshadowed by new developments since the meeting. At the time of the meeting, the massive tariffs announced by Trump in early April were causing strong market concerns about the impact of a trade war on the global economy.
Before the impact of changes in global trade conditions on the economy becomes clear, the Federal Reserve has little reason to adjust the 4.25%-4.50% policy rate maintained since December last year. Investors currently expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the June and July meetings, but to cut rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. (Jin10)