- Analyst Dan Gambardello says Cardano (ADA) is near a major rally via Bitcoin DeFi, airdrops.
- Cardano ETF approval odds at 68% (Polymarket); Crypto Capital Risk Model score is 24 (bullish).
- ADA consolidates (176 days) near $0.70 (200-wk EMA); price ~$0.75, but $0.58 dip possible.
Cardano (ADA) might be gearing up for a major rally, according to well-known crypto analyst and YouTuber Dan Gambardello. He sees a powerful mix of big-picture market shifts and fresh on-chain innovations putting Cardano right on the edge of a significant upward move, thanks to some major developments now in play.
One of the most groundbreaking developments is the integration of Bitcoin ordinals with Cardano. This marks a new phase where cross-chain DeFi, especially Bitcoin DeFi, is no longer theoretical but operational.
Bitcoin DeFi Comes to Cardano
Gambardello highlighted that Cardano is now becoming the base layer for Bitcoin DeFi, potentially unlocking trillions in dormant capital from the Bitcoin network. Adding fuel to this fire is the Midnight airdrop, which is projected to bring 37 million users into the Cardano ecosystem, possibly the largest airdrop in crypto history.
Projects like Indigo and Fluid Tokens are actively working to bring Bitcoin liquidity to Cardano’s DeFi infrastructure, leveraging Cardano’s security and low-fee architecture.
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Cardano’ Institutional and Regulatory Tailwinds
A spot ETF for Cardano is being considered for approval, though recently delayed–a move consistent with how regulators approached Bitcoin and Ethereum in previous cycles. Gambardello noted that such delays are not bearish; rather, they’re procedural.
Approval, possibly later in the summer, would be a crucial moment for ADA. Moreover, Cardano is being considered as part of the US strategic reserve, and its recent Leios upgrade claims to make it the fastest blockchain in the world.
As per Polymarket , the possibility of the approval of a spot Cardano ETF in 2025 stand at 68%, brewing optimism among investors.
ADA Risk Score Hits Bullish Zone (24); Near 200-Week EMA Support After 176-Day Consolidation
Despite these bullish indicators, Cardano’s price action has remained somewhat static, hovering around $0.75 at press time. However, Dan Gambardello urges investors to adopt a macro view. According to the Crypto Capital Venture Risk Model, ADA currently holds a risk score of 24. This level has historically been associated with pre-bull market accumulation zones for Cardano.
Related: Hoskinson Hits ETH As His ADA Leads In Core Development Metrics
In previous cycles, similar risk scores preceded major upward moves. Patience, he argues, is not only a virtue but a strategy. The average consolidation period for ADA before breakouts across past cycles is 179 days. The current consolidation has lasted 176 days, placing Cardano right on schedule for a possible breakout.
Further, Gambardello noted that ADA is currently hovering near the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a critical level near $0.70 that often marks the lower boundary of bull market entry zones.
Source: Dan Gambardello
In the shorter term, on the daily chart, ADA has been bouncing between key moving averages, with the 200-day MA serving as resistance and the 50-day MA offering some support. A dip into the $0.58–$0.65 range remains a possibility before a decisive breakout, especially if bears maintain control over the short-term bull-bear momentum indicator.
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