Ripple’s Metrics Cool Off — Can XRP Break Past the Ceiling?

• XRP struggles to break $2.4 resistance despite recent gains and strong past rallies.
• On-chain data shows market fragility with many short-term holders risking sharp corrections.
• Declining address activity and institutional outflows signal cautious sentiment and possible price pullback.

Ripple’s XRP appears to be stuck in traffic. Other altcoins zoomed ahead, but Ripple’s token struggles to pick up speed. It recently climbed just 6.18% this month. Compared to earlier gains, that’s barely a jog. Worse, the $2.4 resistance remains a thick glass ceiling that XRP can’t seem to crack. While long-time holders stay hopeful, new on-chain data paints a shaky picture. Investors now wonder — is XRP gearing up or giving up?

Warning Signs from On-Chain Activity

Glassnode data shows that over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap came from late 2024 to early 2025. That kind of clustering means too many hands entered too quickly. When most activity concentrates in one zone, the floor grows thin. A single crack could send prices tumbling. History proves this isn’t new. In 2017, XRP spiked to $3.55 before crashing 95%. Back then, the realized cap among young coins surged — just like now. The same happened in 2021. Short-term holders piled in, prices climbed fast, and then came an 80% nosedive.

This past January, XRP peaked near $3.40. Now, the setup looks eerily similar. Short-term holders dominate, and volatility stirs beneath the surface. It’s like watching waves gather before a storm. Meanwhile, XRP address activity tells another part of the story. In March 2025, active addresses hit all-time highs. Since then, activity sank by 90%. A slight recovery followed, but usage remains a shadow of what it was.

Price Charts Add More Pressure

That decline signals a shift. Fewer people are spending or moving XRP . More are choosing to sit still, hoping for another big move. But when the crowd goes silent, momentum fades. And so does investor confidence. Zooming out to the weekly XRP chart, a falling wedge pattern has taken shape. That’s typically bullish, but only if buyers break the upper trendline. So far, they haven’t. Instead, XRP bounced lower again last week.

If that drop continues, the token could revisit $1.76. That’s where the 50-week EMA waits — a key support line. From the current level, that’s a potential 25% pullback. Not disastrous, but definitely discouraging. Institutional interest also took a hit. XRP flows dropped by $37.5 million last week, breaking an 80-week streak of inflows. Big players are now watching other altcoins like SOL and SUI instead. That silence speaks louder than any chart.

XRP sits at a crossroads. Metrics flash warnings. Traders hesitate. Yet, this token has shocked markets before. The question now is whether Ripple’s loyal crowd can carry it through resistance — or whether gravity pulls harder this time. If bulls want a breakout, they’ll need volume, conviction, and stronger participation. Otherwise, XRP may remain stuck beneath that unforgiving ceiling.