As Bitcoin continues to navigate a turbulent upward trajectory after the recent drawdown from its ATH in May, analysts are revisiting historical bull markets for context. However, this time around, some trends appear to be evolving.
What may have worked as a predictive model before might not fully explain the current market behavior.
This Cycle Is Breaking a Few Rules
The ongoing crypto bull cycle shows both parallels and key differences when compared to previous cycles. The 2017 bull market was largely upward with intermittent short corrections, including a notable 7-8-month-long correction toward the latter half, similar in duration to the 2024 correction.
On the other hand, the 2021 cycle experienced an early extended correction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which lasted roughly a year before transitioning into a major rally with minimal interruptions. That sequence, characterized by deep corrections followed by sharp gains, has become a hallmark of crypto bull runs.
The present cycle began with familiar short-lived pullbacks and rallies, but since early 2024, Bitcoin has undergone two distinct phases of rapid gains followed by steep corrections. Between March-November 2024 and January-April 2025, altcoins notably lagged behind Bitcoin, which caused widespread caution and weakened sentiment. While brief surges reignited optimism, continued resistance has capped momentum.
Unlike prior cycles, this one appears to be influenced by repeated episodes of abrupt suppression following strong rallies, which CryptoQuant interprets as interventions by large entities in a bid to temper excessive speculation and extend the overall cycle.
This behavior suggests a deliberate slowdown to prevent overheating, thereby deviating from past euphoric breakouts. Ultimately, despite these moderating patterns, the cycle is anticipated to conclude with a classic euphoric blow-off phase.
Bitcoin’s “Boring” Year, But What’s Ahead?
Though current price action lacked fireworks, market observers believe it marks the most important inflection point in crypto history. The asset’s sideways trading conceals a significant shift in investor base, from retail speculators to corporate and institutional holders like Fidelity and BlackRock.
Between long-time holders cashing out above $100,000 while Millennials allocate generational wealth into Bitcoin, Swan analysts argue this is a strategic accumulation phase. Mounting macroeconomic uncertainty further tightens supply, which positions the market for future explosive moves as Bitcoin becomes a permanent balance sheet fixture for major entities.
